Sparks vs Sky Predictions, Picks, and Odds - WNBA June 30 (2024)

The Chicago Sky had been in freefall, losing six straight games to land at 5-9 on the season. So, imagine the shock of the Los Angeles Sparks when they arrived in the Windy City and had their doors off by them two days ago. Their rematch on Friday, June 30 presents a chance at redemption for L.A., and for Chicago, a chance to prove that, far from a one-off fluke, this Sky team has turned the corner after some early season struggles.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks vs. Sky believe Nneka Ogwumike should continue to dominate on the boards against Chicago’s comparatively weak interior defense.

Sparks vs Sky best odds

Sparks vs Sky picks and predictions

It’s hard to know what to take away from a single-game result as surprising as the one on Wednesday between the Los Angeles Sparks and the Chicago Sky. Both teams played so unlike themselves that I’m inclined to look away from the main game props for action until the rematch gives some indication as to how real the 80-63 Sky win from two days ago was.

Luckily, the stylistic matchup and the prop market provide one clear and enticing bet: Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 rebounds.

Ogwumike was recently voted a starter for the 2023 WNBA All-Star game for the second consecutive year, her eighth selection overall. She and her sister Chiney, along with former Las Vegas Ace Dearica Hamby, form one of the most fearsome interior trios in the W. At 32 years old, Nneka isn’t scoring quite as effectively as she used to, but she’s still finding ways to impact games at a high level.

The Sparks are a team that lives to attack the rim, and Nneka makes it her mission in life to scrounge every second chance opportunity possible over the course of a 40-minute game. Unlike most other dominant rebounders in the league, she’s not a traditional center at 6-foot-2, though she plays plenty of minutes as the nominal five. Instead of pure size, she wins on the glass through a combination of tenacity, anticipation, and dexterity. Her game, in that sense, is more akin to Alyssa Thomas, who leads the W in rebounding at 10.4 rebounds per game this season.

It’s just down to the way that the Sparks play that gives me confidence in this prop. The old adage goes that “long shots make long rebounds”, and while it’s true that 3-point attempts do make longer rebounds on average than midrange jump shots, by far the most rebounding attempts occur on shots right around the basket. And those are the shots that Chicago routinely concedes.

The Sky allow 38.5 points in the paint per game, the second-highest mark in the league. The Sparks are a team built to attack the rim on every possession, and with the Sky’s quality guard defense set to make things hard on L.A.’s perimeter players again, it’s likely this is where this game will be fought.

The Sky’s roster turnover has left them bereft of the kind of defensively talented bigs that they had in spades when Candace Parker, Emma Meesseman and others were in town. Their best defenders, Courtney Williams and Kahleah Copper, are both guard or wing-sized players, and while both took turns making life extremely hard on Jordin Canada last game, their impact on the battle for the boards is relatively limited.

Ogwumike is up to averaging 9.8 rebounds per game for the 2023 season, which would be by far a career-high should she sustain it for an entire season. If recent performances are any indication, there’s a good chance she will. Ogwumike has had nine or more rebounds in nine of her last twelve games (and in one of the three games she didn’t, she had eight). Over those twelve games, she’s averaged 10.6 rebounds, including the 11 she added against this same Sky team on Wednesday.

Bank on Nneka to get it done on the glass again tonight.

My best bet: Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

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Sparks vs Sky spread and Over/Under analysis

The range on opening spreads for the second half of the two-game set between the Sparks and the Sky was quite wide, with Chicago getting anywhere from between 1.5 and 3 points as home favorites. That line has mostly settled now at -2.5 Sky across the board, but at least one sportsbook is still carrying the Sparks at +3 if you favor the road team on Friday.

The Sky’s dominance on Wednesday was surprising, but while outright victory has largely eluded them this season, they have done better against the spread. Chicago was a loser of six straight before it played L.A., but its overall record against the spread this season is a robust 8-5-2. The Sparks, meanwhile, are up against some daunting ATS trends for today’s rematch, having gone just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. It seems L.A. tends to play up or down to its competition, though, after the beatdown it received last time out, it’s hard to imagine the Sky haven’t earned its full attention. But L.A. is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight games played on a single day of rest, a troubling trend for a team of older veterans.

The total for Friday’s game opened at a modest 154.5, with oddsmakers expecting another low-scoring game following Wednesday’s game that finished at just 143 total points. Money on the Over has seen the total climb to as high as 156.5 at some sportsbooks. The Sky have slipped past the Phoenix Mercury to become the worst offense in the W, with the Sparks narrowly behind them in third from the bottom. Both teams have seen the Under cash in nine of their 15 games so far this season.

That makes an Under bet tempting, but it’s hard to imagine the level of offensive ineptitude that plagued the Sparks on Wednesday resurfacing to that degree twice in one week. L.A. shot a notch below 35% from the field, turned the ball over 16 times, and committed 23 personal fouls. For a team laden with veterans, they played young and immature. I’m expecting them to come out with a renewed sense of focus, and because both teams have strong matchups on offense, I’d lean towards the Over even at this higher line.

Sparks vs Sky betting trend to know

Sparks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one day’s rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Sky.

Sparks vs Sky game info

Sparks vs Sky key injuries

Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Sky: Rebekah Gardner G (Out), Isabelle Harrison F (Out), Ruthy Hebard F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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